By: Movie Snurb –
I am going to attempt to predict the upcoming Academy Awards. With a little more normalcy in this awards season it’s becoming a little more clear who are the front runners for some of the categories. Yet some categories are still unpredictable. I am going to go category by category predicting every award. I’ll begin with the “below the line” categories and move to the “above the line categories”.
First I am going to start with the shorts because I feel like these are the two categories I know the least about, unfortunately.
Best Live Action Short
Ala Kachuu
The Dress
The Long Goodbye
On My Mind
Please Hold
Unfortunately, the shorts categories are the ones I am least knowledgeable on. A few notes for how I vote on these. If there is a “star” in one of the live action shorts, vote for it. So I would bet The Long Goodbye starring Riz Ahmed will win here.
Will Win: The Long Goodbye
Could Win: The Dress
Best Documentary Short
Audible
Lead Me Home
The Queen of Basketball
Three Songs for Benazir
When We Were Bullies
The Documentary Short tends to be the category where Netflix prevails. And though they have three films nominated here I think the one that has buzz isn’t a Netflix short. The Queen of Basketball is about the only woman drafted into the NBA. Given modern times I think this is a doc that will resonate with voters.
Will Win: The Queen of Basketball
Could Win: Lead Me Home
Best Animated Short
Affairs of the Art
Bestia
BoxBallet
Robin Robin
The Windshield Wiper
Usually this is the place where Disney/Pixar dominate. But they do not have any film nominated here. However, Netflix does have Robin Robin and another good rule of thumb is to vote for the short that is easily accessible, which is Robin Robin.
Will Win: Robin Robin
Could Win: Bestia
Costume Design
Cruella
Cyrano
Dune
Nightmare Alley
West Side Story
The Academy leans toward period pieces or films about the fashion industry. And as weird as it sounds, Cruella could very well be an Oscar winner for that very reason. I’m picking it to win with Cyrano right behind, if people actually saw the film.
Will Win: Cruella
Could Win: Cyrano
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Coming 2 America
Cruella
Dune
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
House of Gucci
With Jessica Chastain winning the SAG and Critics Choice award for Best Actress, she is now campaigning for the team as well. With all of this they also just won the BAFTA for Makeup & Hair. It feels like they’re slowly pulling away from the pack.
Will Win: The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Could Win: Coming 2 America
Best Original Song
“Be Alive” from King Richard
“Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto
“Down to Joy” from Belfast
“No Time to Die” from No Time to Die
“Somehow You Do” from Four Good Days
It’s odd that the team behind Encanto didn’t choose the earworm that is “We Don’t Talk About Bruno”. With that this race is coming down to two songs. “Be Alive” or “No Time to Die”. The Academy with either award Beyonce with an Oscar because everyone loves her, or the Academy will rubberstamp the James Bond theme because on the voting ballot the voters do not see who is behind the song or title, but just the title of the movie.
Will Win: “Be Alive”
Could Win: “No Time to Die”
Best Original Socre
Don’t Look Up
Dune
Encanto
Parallel Mothers
The Power of the Dog
At first thought, I thought this would also come between two choices: either Hans Zimmer for Dune, or Johnny Greenwood for The Power of the Dog. Now I am wondering if this is where the Academy is wanting to award Encanto. Don’t be surprised if this is where Encanto wins its Oscar. Dune did win the BAFTA for Original score, but Encanto wasn’t nominated. Since Zimmer has already won an Academy Award, the Academy may go with Encanto.
Will Win: Dune
Could Win: Encanto
Best Sound
Belfast
Dune
No Time to Die
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
Dune is this year’s Gravity or Mad Max. Highly respected genre film that impresses anyone who watches the film. Whether you like the film or not, the technical aspects of the film cannot be denied. I think Dune will clean up in the “below the line” categories and probably end the night with the most wins.
Will Win: Dune
Could Win: West Side Story
Best Production Design
Dune
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
The Tragedy of MacBeth
West Side Story
Again, it’s the same argument I just made. Dune will clean these up like a hoover vacuum.
Will Win: Dune
Could Win: West Side Story
Best Visual Effects
Dune
Free Guy
No Time to Die
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
Spider-Man: No Way Home
Again, Dune will clean these up. But for a future reference; If you ever trying to pick this category, pick the film that is nominated for Best Picture. This is the film that has the most support behind it. If none of the films are nominated, then pick the one that was most likely to be nominated for Best Picture, like First Man in 2018.
Will Win: Dune
Could Win: No Time to Die
Best Film Editing
Don’t Look Up
Dune
King Richard
The Power of the Dog
Tick, Tick…Boom!
This category is probably one of the toughest to call. I think (or hope) the only one with no chance is Don’t Look Up. King Richard won the ACE Eddie Award for dramatic film (Editing Guild awards) and Tick, Tick…Boom! Won the ACE Eddie for Best Comedic feature. I think it is going to come down to these two. With the Will Smith factor I’m leaning towards King Richard, but TTB has the flashier editing. However, Dune could win if the Academy is rubbing stamping in the tech categories. If The Power of the Dog wins, then look out. That will show major support for this film and could be an early indicator that it is winning Best Picture. Currently Gold Derby gives the best odds to Dune with The Power of the Dog in second.
Will Win: King Richard
Could Win: Dune
Best Cinematography
Dune
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story
Possibly the strongest category at this years Oscars. I would’ve replaced Nightmare Alley with The Green Knight, but it’s still a good nomination. In consulting Gold Derby again, they give Dune the best odds to take home this prize. It is impressive and would be an understandable win. But, Ari Wegner’s ability to make New Zealand look like 1920’s Montana and not to mention gorgeous was impressive. If people see West Side Story, they will see some of Janusz Kaminski’s best work ever. Though The Tragedy of Macbeth was underwhelming, the cinematography was amazing. So, this will be a hard one to call.
Will Win: Dune
Could Win: The Power of the Dog
Best Documentary Feature
Ascension
Attica
Flee
Summer of Soul (…Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised)
Writing with Fire
Gold Derby gives Summer of Soul the best odds to win this prize. It’s an awesome doc that has endured this awards season for many reasons. However, Flee is nominated in 3 categories this year. It’s the first film in Oscar history to be nominated for Documentary, Animated, and International Feature. I have a feeling with the support this film has, that it will prevail in one of the three categories. Given that Drive My Car is nominated for Best Picture and Encanto seems to be steamrolling, this is where they can reward this film.
Will Win: Flee
Could Win: Summer of Soul
Best Animated Feature
Encanto
Flee
Luca
The Mitchells vs. the Machines
Raya and the Last Dragon
Encanto seems to be steamrolling this year. The songs are all earworms and “We Don’t Talk About Bruno” became its own phenomenon. It feels like a bit of a rubberstamp. But, that could be because I personally would rank Encanto 5th in this lineup. Even so, it feels like this is what is winning without much competition.
Will Win: Encanto
Could Win: Flee
Best International Feature Film
Drive My Car (Japan)
Flee (Denmark)
The Hand of God (Italy)
Luana: A Yak in the Classroom (Bhutan)
The Worst Person in the World (Norway)
Given that only one of these films is in the Best Picture lineup, it’s the safe pick. However, maybe the Academy prefers the funnier The Worst Person in the World to the three-hour meditative film from Japan. However, another reason to bet on Drive My Car, Ryusuke Hamaguchi got in for director. It’s Drive My Car.
Will Win: Drive My Car
Could Win: The Worst Person in the World
Best Adapted Screenplay
CODA
Drive My Car
Dune
The Lost Daughter
The Power of the Dog
I don’t know if there was ever a frontrunner for Adapted Screenplay. I think most people assumed this would go to Jane Campion for The Power of the Dog. But Maggie Gyllenhaal has won the Independent Film Award for Best Screenplay, and The USC Scripter Award for her film The Lost Daughter, the latter award being a good indicator of the Oscar favorite. It’s been clear the industry has a lot of respect for Maggie’s directorial debut and this could be where they reward her and her film.
Will Win: The Lost Daughter
Could Win: The Power of the Dog
Best Original Screenplay
Belfast
Don’t Look Up
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
The Worst Person in the World
Let’s be honest, there are only two films in contention here. Belfast or Licorice Pizza. Two industry giants who have been around a while with multiple Oscar nominations and 0 wins. This will either be Kenneth Branagh or Paul Thomas Anderson. PTA feels like the pick, but his film has come under scrutiny for a scene and the age gap in the film. Belfast is the safer pick and one that would make sense under the old Academy. Belfast does have more support given that it has more than twice the nominations that Licorice Pizza has, so maybe this is where they reward Belfast. Who knows, maybe they’ll surprise everyone and go with The Worst Person in the World.
Will Win: Belfast
Could Win: Licorice Pizza
Best Supporting Actress
Jessie Buckley for The Lost Daughter
Ariana DeBose for West Side Story
Judi Dench for Belfast
Kirsten Dunst for The Power of the Dog
Aunjanue Ellis for King Richard
It’s the next 5 categories I think will be the most boring of the night. All four acting categories appear to be sewn up and the directing award also seems to be sewn up. Ariana DeBose is a steam engine barreling through the entire awards season. I loved West Side Story and she brings a new and modern element to Anita. A star was truly born in this film. She’s won basically every precursor. She will win this.
Will Win: Ariana DeBose
Could Win: Aunjanue Ellis
Best Supporting Actor
Ciaran Hinds for Belfast
Troy Kotsur for CODA
Jesse Plemons for The Power of the Dog
J.K. Simmons for Being the Ricardos
Kodi Smit-McPhee for The Power of the Dog
I think for much of the award season Kodi Smit-McPhee was considered the front-runner, especially after the Globes where he won. But as of late Troy Kotsur has emerged as the clear front-runner and probable favorite to win the Oscar. Troy won the BAFTA and SAG for Supporting Actor and Ensemble. There is a lot of love for CODA. It’s a crowd-pleaser and Troy is clearly the best thing about the film. Smit-McPhee also will have a harder time winning because he will now split votes with his co-star Jesse Plemons. With that, I think Troy should take home this prize on Oscar night.
Will Win: Troy Kotsur
Could Win: Kodi Smit-McPhee
Best Actress
Jessica Chastain for The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Olivia Colman for The Lost Daughter
Penelope Cruz for Parallel Mothers
Nicole Kidman for Being the Ricardos
Kristen Stewart for Spencer
This is the only acting award that isn’t as sewn up as the others. Currently Jessica Chastain feels like the front runner. She won the SAG and Critics Choice, but wasn’t nominated for a BAFTA, and lost the Golden Globe. Colman missed at BAFTA as well and lost the Globe, SAG, and Critics Choice. Penelope Cruz basically missed every major precursor. Nicole Kidman won the Globe, but also missed at BAFTA and lost every other major precursor. Kristen Stewart lost the globe, and also missed BAFTA and SAG. Given all of this craziness, I think Chastain feels like the safe pick. It’s her 3rd nomination. She’s against three previous winners and a first-time nominee. This would be the perfect time to finally reward her.
Will Win: Jessica Chastain
Could Win: Penelope Cruz
Best Actor
Javier Bardem for Being the Ricardos
Benedict Cumberbatch for The Power of the Dog
Andrew Garfield for Tick, Tick…Boom!
Will Smith for King Richard
Denzel Washington for The Tragedy of Macbeth
As much as I love Andrew Garfield in Tick, Tick…Boom! He is not winning this one, even with winning the Golden Globe for Best Actor Comedy or Musical. I personally think he gave the best performance by a lead actor this past year. This race is again down to two people, Cumberbatch or Smith. Benedict arguably gives a career best performance in The Power of the Dog. But Will Smith’s more muted and honest portrayal as the Williams patriarch in King Richard appears to be leading him to Oscar glory. I think Will Smith wins this. It’s a good performance by a respected actor who has been doing good work for 30 years and it’s time to reward him. At least it won’t be the worst “career win” ever (See Al Pacino in Scent of a Woman).
Will Win: Will Smith
Could Win: Benedict Cumberbatch
Best Director
Paul Thomas Anderson for Licorice Pizza
Kenneth Branagh for Belfast
Jane Campion for The Power of the Dog
Ryusuke Hamaguchi for Drive My Car
Steven Spielberg for West Side Story
There is not much to write about here. Jane Campion has basically won everything up to this point. With the Surprising omission of Denis Villeneuve for his impressive achievement in adapting Dune, I see no competition for Jane Campion. It is finally her time and she made possibly her career best film.
Will Win: Jane Campion
Could Win: ?? I have no idea who is even in second place. Spielberg??
Best Picture
Belfast
CODA
Don’t Look Up
Drive My Car
Dune
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
Some question marks coming into this race. The Power of the Dog seemed to be the front-runner and has been the front-runner for a long while. It won the Globe for Best Drama, the BAFTA for Best Film, and the Critics Choice for Best Film. It didn’t have an ensemble nomination at SAG but it never felt like an Ensemble film like CODA or King Richard did. It had support from the actors as three of the cast members received individual nominations. My holdup is if there is still a Netflix bias. It’s why Roma didn’t win Best Picture, and possibly why the Irishman blanked. Listening to Indiewire’s podcast, Anne Thompson said at the Oscar luncheon while talking to some Oscar voters it is clear there is still a Netflix bias.
I think Belfast could be that classic theatrical release. It’s a crowd-pleaser, made by a respected filmmaker in Kenneth Branagh. It feels like an old school Academy pick. I would say like Green Book in 2018, but Belfast is better than Green Book. As I said before, it has support from the Academy with 7 nominations.
Then there is CODA. CODA won the SAG ensemble and Saturday evening it won the PGA (Producers Guild of America Awards). Since 2010 the winner of the PGA has won Best Picture at the Oscars 8 of the 11 times. So now the little engine that could appears to keep gaining steam and is now the frontrunner. However, it could be the Little Miss Sunshine of this year, winning the PGA and Supporting Actor but losing Best Picture. However, that was in 2006 before the preferential ballot era. We are now in the preferential ballot era and if enough people rank CODA as the 1st, 2nd, or 3rd film of the year that could be enough to win Best Picture. If CODA wins it would be the film to win with the fewest overall nominations since Grand Hotel in 1932, which had one sole nomination (for Best Picture).
With the expanded and somewhat younger Academy, I am riding with The Power of the Dog. I think it is the best film of 2021 and many people agree.
Will Win: The Power of the Dog
Could Win: CODA
